Here are the last names of the players that Andy Murray has faced in the 10 Grand Slam finals in which he’s played: Federer, Federer, Djokovic, Federer, Djokovic, Djokovic, Djokovic, Djokovic, Djokovic, Djokovic.
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No offense to the man that Murray will face in his 11th final, Milos Raonic, but after trying and mostly failing to run that gauntlet—he won just two of those 10 matches—the Scot might be looking forward to playing someone who isn’t among the three or four greatest players of all time on Centre Court on Sunday.
In that sense, this year’s Wimbledon final will a day of firsts for both men. The 25-year-old Raonic will be making his major-final debut, while the 29-year-old Murray will be the favorite in a major final for the first time. Raonic’s presence will be refreshing; no man under 28 has played a Slam final since Marin Cilic beat Kei Nishikori at the U.S. Open in 2014. As for Murray, his attitude and demeanor, as well as his play itself, will be interesting: Will the pressure of being expected to win a major—and not just any major, but his home major—have an effect on him?
I doubt it. As Murray says, he has faced maximum, suffocating pressure in every match he has played at Wimbledon since he debuted there in 2005. Over the years, he has become an expert manager of his own game on Centre Court; whatever his level on a given day, he always seems to have bottomless reserves of will and energy to burn for the British fans. His losses there have come almost exclusively to Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.
Can Raonic put his name on that list of Murray killers? The man with the missile serve has, as the boxing cliché goes, a puncher’s chance. Murray leads their head to head 6-3, and he has won all three of their meetings in 2016. Two of those victories, though, didn’t come easily. At the Australian Open in January, Raonic led two sets to one before injuring his leg and losing in five; on grass at Queen’s Club three weeks ago, Raonic led by a set and a break before Murray climbed backed in it and won in three.
Now Raonic is coming off of his own comeback win over Federer in the semis. After that match, the Canadian said he couldn’t let Murray “suck him into playing his game,” the way he did at Queen’s. In other words, Raonic doesn’t want to prolong points or trade ground strokes or get into extended rallies with his quicker, subtler and more consistent opponent. The only problem is, if Raonic goes big and “empties the tank,” as John McEnroe and Carlos Moya advised him to do against Federer, Murray will be well-equipped to handle it. His two-handed backhand gives him one of the game’s best returns, and one of its most stable ground games.
Raonic should be loose, and he should come out firing. Murray will likely stay close early, and wait to take advantage of any lapse in the big man’s game. A year from now, I might pick Raonic to win. But not today.
Winner: Andy Murray
