Date: Saturday, 4th March 2017
Kick off at 14:30 UK
Venue: RheinEnergieStadion.
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FC Cologne vs Bayern Munich Preview and Prediction
Peter Stöger’s Cologne have taken just one point from their last three Bundesliga matches, following last weekend’s 3-1 defeat away to RB Leipzig. Cologne are still seventh overall in the table, but the distance between them and the European qualification positions is slowly getting bigger. Saturday’s match at home to reigning champions Bayern Munich should prove no easy feat either – Cologne haven’t won against any Bundesliga leader since September 2008 and, notably, are without a win against any side currently within the top eight so far this season.
Bayern Munich have turned around their “unconvincing” run in style over the past 7 days. Bayern dominated and humiliated Hamburger SV with a 8-0 win at home last weekend, which also saw Polish striker Robert Lewandowski net his first hat-trick of 2017, to become the Bundesliga’s joint top scorer (19 goals) in the process, before easing their way through to the semi-finals of the DFB Pokal at home to Schalke during the week (3-0 win).
Bayern Munich are clear favourites here at 4/9 with bet365, but we feel that backing “both teams to score” at 21/20 has some decent potential for the following reasons:
Most people know about Bayern Munich and Robert Lewandowski, and for good reason too. Lewandowski is a world class striker and currently in top form, with seven goals from his last four competitive outings. He’s also scored three goals in Bayern’s last four on the road so you’d fancy him to continue this run as an anytime goalscorer at 4/7 with bet365. However, Cologne are not without a weapon of their own in French striker Anthony Modeste. Modeste is just two goals behind Lewandowski (17 goals total) in the battle for this season’s “golden boot” and he’s scored an astounding 55% of Cologne’s total goals this season – a Bundesliga record if he can maintain this pace for the rest of the season. With 65% of the Frenchman’s goals being scored at home (11) and netting a goal in all of Cologne’s last three home outings, we feel he’s the better value anytime scorer bet here at 13/5 with bet365. Not to mention that he scored against the visitors earlier this season when Cologne took a point away from Bavaria (1-1 draw).
Notably, Bayern Munich’s recent domination has in fact come from matches at the Allianz Arena. Bayern have failed to keep a clean sheet in three of their last four Bundesliga away matches, including against some much weaker teams than Cologne (Freiburg and Bremen), and the added strain following their mid-week DFB Pokal match, where the league leaders fielded a full strength squad, should add even more value to Cologne getting one against them.
Regarding a correct score bet, though Cologne are unbeaten at home this season (W5 D5), Bayern Munich hold the best away record in the Bundesliga (W8 D2 L1). Cologne’s poor track record against much stronger sides, combined with Bayern’s return to goal-scoring form, means we feel the Bavarians could sneak another win here. As such, we feel there’s decent value to be had backing a 2-1 Bayern Munich win at 15/2 with bet365.
HEAD TO HEAD
Bayern Munich drew 1-1 at home to Cologne when the two sides met earlier this season. Of the 43 matches at home to Bayern Munich, Cologne have lost 21, drawn 9, and won 13.
COLOGNE VS BAYERN MUNICH STATS
Cologne have scored at least one goal in 90% of their home matches. Bayern Munich have kept a clean sheet in just 36% of away matches. Both teams to score has landed in 50% of Cologne’s home and 55% of Bayern’s away matches.
COLOGNE TEAM NEWS
Cologne have a few injury concerns here: first choice goalkeeper Timo Horn suffers from a training deficit after an injury spell, while right midfielder Marcel Risse is expected to miss the rest of the season. Midfielders Lehmann and Bittencourt are also both ruled out. Jonas Hector also serves his first ever Bundesliga suspension for his 5th yellow card from last match.
BAYERN MUNICH TEAM NEWS
Bayern Munich are without center back Jerome Boateng and are doubtful over Renato Sanches.
COLOGNE VS BAYERN MUNICH PREDICTIONS over 2.5
