Genoa vs AC Milan: Preview and Prediction

Genoa vs AC Milan
2016/17 Italian Serie A.
Date: Tuesday, 25th October 2016
Kick-Off: 19:45 UK,
Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa).

After a bitter loss in the Derby della Lanterna on Saturday, Genoa will have to regroup as they welcome a high-flying AC Milan to the Stadio Luigi Ferraris on Tuesday evening.

The derby clash between Genoa and Sampdoria was a pretty entertaining one from a neutral perspective, but the Grifone will surely be feeling hard done by the result. Ivan Juric’s side had a solid start to the term, but now have hit a rough patch. They have won just one match out of their last five and have slipped down into the bottom half of the table – albeit with a game in hand.

Meanwhile, Milan arrive in Genoa having shocked reigning champions Juventus to claim a hard-fought 1-0 win. Curiously enough, it marked the first time ex-Rossoneri boss Massimiliano Allegri suffered a defeat to his former side since being sacked in January 2014. It also was the first win for the Diavolo over La Vecchia Signora in Serie A since 2012, and in doing so, Milan joined cross-town rivals Inter as the only two sides to have beaten the Bianconeri this term.

Gianluigi Donnarumma was particularly impressive for the hosts as his save in the last moments of the game to deny Sami Khedira’s shot proved decisive in denying Juventus a late equalizer and making sure they sealed what was a well-deserved victory.

Vincenzo Montella’s men now find themselves just two points behind Juventus and could actually overtake them should they win on Tuesday. That would mark the first time in several seasons that Milan have actually found themselves on top of the charts. And for a team hoping to again feature in Europe after a too-long hiatus, it certainly will go a long way towards further bolstering their confidence.

Genoa vs AC Milan: Head-to-head statistics

• Only one of Genoa’s nine goals have taken place in the first 45 – all the others take place after the half-time break.
• The Grifone have won just one out of their last six Serie A games.
• Milan have won five out of their last six Serie A matches.
• The Rossoneri have won 12, drawn five, and lost five of their last 22 meetings with Genoa.
• However, the Grifone won this same fixture last season (1-0 on September 27th, 2015).
• Luca Rigoni’s goal last weekend was the first Genoa have netted in the first half at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
• Milan have won nine, drawn five, and lost six out of their last 20 away games against teams ranked below them in the table.
• Genoa have won seven, drawn six, and lost seven out of their last 20 home games against teams ranked above them in the table.

Genoa vs AC Milan: Prediction

Genoa have not won a home game since matchday one, when they beat Cagliari 3-1. Meanwhile, Milan have not lost since a September 11th 1-0 defeat to Udinese; since then the Rossoneri have won five and drawn one. Out of those six games, they have managed to keep clean sheets in four, including this past Sunday’s win over Juventus. They have also only conceded one goal in their last three road fixtures, but, like Genoa, are a team that tends to score late. Of their 16 goals, only four have taken place in the first half.

Expect this to be a very close one. Out of their past five meetings with Genoa, only one match has finished with a goal difference of more than one. There were also no draws during that period; with three wins for Genoa and two for Milan.

However, Milan are a side in the ascendancy and were buoyed by their win over Juventus. They should be able to do just enough to edge out the Grifone to temporarily overtake Roma and Juve to the top of the Serie A table.

Genoa vs AC Milan: Betting Tips

Milan to WIN at 13/8 (2.63)
Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 (1.80).