What: UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
When: Saturday, September 7, 2019, at 10:15 a.m. ET
Where: The Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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Today, we’re going to take a first look at a few of the fights and break them down from a sports betting perspective. We’ll talk about some of the early line movements and take a deeper look into public perception. If you’d like full breakdowns of each fight on the card, you can find that in the RotoGrinders MMA Premium section.
If you’re new to MMA betting, give a read to the SharpSide MMA Betting Guide: Ins and Outs of Wagering On Mixed Martial Arts to get yourself up to speed.
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Dustin Poirier
The current lightweight champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov, will look to defend his belt Saturday against the interim champion, Dustin Poirier, in Abu Dhabi. Nurmagomedov is a massive favorite yet again, currently sitting at -460 after opening at -400.
Nurmagomedov has only closed as the underdog once in 12 UFC bouts, and he’s closed at -300 or higher in eight of those bouts. He’s simply a very difficult stylistic matchup for any opponent who cannot match him skill for skill in the wrestling department, which essentially will never happen.
Poirier will still have a chance to win if he can scramble up to his feet consistently, but the odds are stacked against him.
Edson Barboza vs. Paul Felder
A rematch from 2015, Edson Barboza and Paul Felder are set to scrap once again Saturday. Barboza closed at -155 in the first bout, and decisively beat Felder over the course of three rounds to win a decision. Surprisingly, he’s at -155 once again.
It’s rare to see the winner of a fight not hold heavier value in the rematch, but Felder has been on a solid streak of wins, and Barboza has taken a lot of damage in his recent bouts.
To be fair, Barboza has faced very tough competition in Justin Gaethje, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Kevin Lee. The stylistic matchup hasn’t changed though, and only time will tell whether Felder has made enough improvements to close the gap.
Islam Makhachev vs. Davi Ramos
Training partner and friend of Nurmagomedov, Islam Makhachev has had a fantastic run in the lightweight division as well, earning a 17-1 professional record.
Makhachev is a heavy favorite Saturday, currently sitting at -320 over submission grappling specialist Davi Ramos. Makhachev has closed as a favorite in each of his eight UFC bouts, and will likely continue to do so until he makes a heavy step up in competition.
However, bettors should tread with caution. Makhachev still hasn’t proven himself capable of winning stand-up-based fights, which he may be forced into considering the grappling pedigree of Ramos.
