Serie A Week 21 – 22 Jan 2017 (19.45 UK)
Roma – Cagliari
Stadio Olimpico


MATCH PREVIEW

Cagliari travel to Roma in a match pitting Serie A’s worst defence against one of the most prolific teams.

Their last meeting in the league ended in one of Roma’s only two league draws this season, and neutrals will be hoping for an equally exhilarating match at the Stadio Olimpico.

The Giallorossi have notched up two consecutive 1-0 Serie A victories away to Udinese and Genoa, proving Luciano Spalletti’s men can finally ‘win ugly’ after all these years. It was an inevitable step during Mohamed Salah’s absence for the Africa Cup of Nations, though the 4-0 Coppa Italia mauling of Sampdoria on Thursday evening was a reminder of why they’re the most prolific side in Italy (including all tournaments).

Spalletti’s eventual decision to move to a 3-4-3 formation, whilst unexpected, has received plaudits for shoring up Roma’s defence, and has seen them concede only two goals in their last seven matches, six of which were victories. By moving Radja Nainggolan out to the left wing, I Lupi effectively have three lines of defence, enabling the Belgian to cut inside, linking up with the two central midfielders.

Repositioning the focus to defence has inevitably limited the Giallorossi going forward, compounded in recent weeks by a minor injury to Diego Perotti and by Edin Dzeko losing some of his early season form. With a goal and an assist mid-week against Sampdoria, Dzeko may feel his luck has changed.

Cagliari have also enjoyed a positive start to 2017, with a closely fought loss to Milan, and most recently an emphatic 4-1 win against Genoa. The Sardinian side started the game slowly, and struggled to move the ball out of their own half until Giovanni Simeone’s 28th-minute goal sparked them into life.


Isolani Coach Massimo Rastelli may blame this on the strange moment preceding the fixture, with key man Davide Di Gennaro pulling out through a muscular problem immediately before kick-off. Certainly Cagliari looked like a team playing without their first choice central midfielder and top provider of assists, as all four goals relied upon an element of luck.

Di Gennaro should have recovered for this weekend’s fixture, although they will be without centre-back Marco Capuano after he picked up a second yellow against Genoa. Summer signing from Juventus Simone Padoin will also be missing after having picked up a thigh injury in training that will see him out for a few weeks, whilst centre-forward Federico Melchiorri is the only long term absentee with a cruciate ligament rupture.

Italian U21 international Nicolò Barella will likely continue to deputise for Padoin, whilst even if Melchiorri were fit he would be unlikely to dislodge Calgliari’s top scoring veteran Marco Borriello, who has notched nine already this campaign.


Roma’s injury woes are finally starting to lessen, with fan favourite Alessandro Florenzi back in training following his own cruciate ligament rupture, and Perotti recovering in time to feature off the bench mid-week. This means that both Thomas Vermaelen and Mário Rui should both be on the bench at the weekend.

Despite their respectable Serie A standing in 10th place, Cagliari have been disastrous in defence this campaign, shipping 44 goals already (to put this in context Pescara, 27 points below them at the bottom of the table, have conceded 36). Relatively speaking, the two goals they have conceded in the last two games have shown major improvement, and playing against a misfiring Giallorossi could provide an opportunity for further progress.

However, Roma will go into this fixture as overwhelming favourites, and are likely to see it as an opportunity to rediscover their attacking form against the league’s worst defence.

Keep an eye on: Radja Nianggolan (Roma) – After a slow start to the season the Belgium ace has rediscovered his form, having scored five goals in his last eight matches. What makes this all the more impressive is that the central midfielder has been pushed out of his positional comfort zone, filling the creative void on the left wing by Mohammed Salah’s absence. He made the difference last week against Udinese, scoring the only goal and notched two more against in the Coppa Italia, so you wouldn’t bet against him adding to his tally against his beloved former club.

Form Guide: Roma (W W W L W) Cagliari (W L W L L)

Last season: Not played

Stat fact: Cagliari have lost five out of their last six away games.

Top tip: There have been over two goals scored in nine out of Roma’s last 10 home games.

Roma (probable): Szczesny; Manolas, Fazio, Rudiger; Peres, Strootman, De Rossi, Emerson; Nainggolan, El Shaarawy; Dzeko

Suspended: None

Cagliari (probable): Rafael; Isla, Ceppitelli, Alves, Murru; Dessena, Di Gennaro, Barella; Joao Pedro; Farias, Borriello

Predict : Roma win both team to score