Competition: Italian Serie A 2016-17
Date: Saturday, 4th March, 14:00 GMT
Stadium: Stadio Olimpico.
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Roma vs SSC Napoli Preview and Prediction
The two losing Coppa Italia semi-finalists face off on Saturday in a head-to-head for second place and dwindling Scudetto ambitions.
Sitting seven and 12 points behind Juventus respectively, Roma and Napoli are also two goals down in the Cup after some disappointing midweek performances, their packed schedules forcing them to play a combined nine games in the next 15 days.
Forced to travel twice this week, Napoli look the weakest coming into this one, having lost 3-1 at home to Roma earlier in the season – mere days after Arkadiusz Milik went down with an ACL tear – and coming off a 2-0 home loss to Atalanta, which all but ended their title ambitions.
The defensive comparison between the two sides is unflattering. While Wojciech Szczesny has kept a league-leading 11 clean sheets, the error-prone Pepe Reina only has six, his constant relapse into howler territory forcing the Partenopei to find a better option for next season.
It gets worse. Kalidou Koulibaly has not had a strong 2017, possibly tired out by the Africa Cup of Nations, while ageing partner Raul Albiol has not found a replacement in Nikola Maksimovic, an option Napoli fans have never appreciated.
While Milik has spent most of the season on the treatment table (but could make an appearance here after getting his first start since October in the Coppa against Juventus), rival Edin Dzeko leads the Serie A scoring charts alongside Gonzalo Higuain and Andrea Belotti with 19 goals.
Then again, Napoli have all the potential to do what they want over 90 minutes, especially with the attacking talent available – Dries Mertens’ conversion to a False Nine potentially drawing Roma’s defenders out of position to create confusion in a three on three battle.
Antonio Rudiger will probably struggle to act as an additional full-back under so much pressure, while Emerson Palmieri is recovering from injury and may cede his place to the unpredictable Juan Jesus.
Napoli also seem to be worse at home, where their opponents have hit them on the counter. No such worry on the road, where they’ve reduced Bologna and Cagliari to mincemeat (12-1 on aggregate) and played well against Juventus – for a half at least.
As much as they’re favourites, Roma’s passive midweek loss in the Coppa (to rivals Lazio no less) has revealed two big flaws – not only can the Giallorossi’s defence can be attacked by going behind the wing-backs, but they may well go 10 years without a trophy, their last arriving in 2008 in the form of the Coppa Italia.
Then again, Luciano Spalletti is the one who is hesitating over signing a new deal. Another defeat may, on the other hand, leave Maurizio Sarri on very thin ice, especially if combined with defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League.
With Maurizio Zamparini leaving Palermo, Aurelio De Laurentiis may want to remind everyone of his strong candidacy for most destabilizing Calcio President…
This game sees the league’s two most prolific benches face off. Roma boast the most goals scored by substitutes at home (five), while Napoli’s is the best on the road (four).
Keep an eye on: Marek Hamsik (Napoli) – Often accused of flunking big games, the Slovak star now has to face Roma’s midfield trio of Radja Nainggolan, Kevin Strootman and Daniele De Rossi. There may be a silver lining in the selection of the younger Piotr Zielinski and Amadou Diawara to flank him. The summer signings are overtaking Jorginho and Allan in the hierarchy, and are less prone to giving it away in dangerous places. The former in particular is often ruthlessly pressed in key ties.
Form Guide: Roma (W W W W W), Napoli (L W W W D)
Last season: Roma 1-0 Napoli
Stat fact: Napoli have not beaten Roma, home or away, since November 2014 with just one point from the last four meetings, in which they scored one goal and conceded five. They’ve lost five Olimpico trips in a row in all competition, not winning here since a 2-0 Serie A result in February 2011.
Top Tip: Draw. In a season where Juventus’ pursuers keep tripping over themselves, it would hardly be a surprise if they did so again.
Roma (probable): Szczesny; Manolas, Fazio, Rudiger; Peres, Strootman, De Rossi, Emerson; Nainggolan, Salah; Dzeko
Suspended: None
Napoli (probable): Reina; Hysaj, Albiol, Koulibaly, Ghoulam; Zielinski, Diawara, Hamsik; Callejon, Mertens, Insigne
Suspended: None
