Competition: German Bundesliga 2016-17
Date: Saturday, 21th January, 14:30 GMT
Stadium: Weserstadion (Bremen).
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Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Preview
Werder Bremen still sit precariously above the relegation zone, with just three points separating them and northern rivals Hamburg, despite finishing out 2016 strong. Bremen are unbeaten in their last five Bundesliga matches, collecting 9 of a possible 15 points (W2 D3), but Alexander Nouri’s side now face the daunting task of hosting Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich in the two matches following the winter hiatus.
Borussia Dortmund finished their year with three consecutive draws, a run of results that leaves them 12 points adrift of league leaders Bayern Munich one match before the halfway point of the season. Dortmund have not lost the opening game of the year since 2004 and their strong head-2-head record against Werder Bremen should no doubt leave them feeling confident ahead of this match.
Dortmund are the bookies’ favourites here at 1/2, however, we feel the form of the BVB, particularly away from home (W2 D3 L3), doesn’t warrant them to be a profitable bet here. Instead, we feel that under 2.5 goals at 17/10 has the potential to be an extremely profitable bet for the following reasons: Dortmund’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who is the Bundesliga’s top goalscorer (16 goals from 15 appearances), will be absent here as he’s representing Gabon at the Africa Cup of Nations. Though Thomas Tuchel has plenty of attacking options at his disposal, Aubameyang’s 16 goal total represents just under half of Borussia Dortmund’s 35 goals so far this season and second top scorer Ousmane Dembele (4 goals in 15 apperances) is also out injured.
Meanwhile, Bremen were much improved at the back towards the end of 2016 and their tightened defensive performances have seen under 2.5 goals scored in each of their last three matches: a 1-0 win against Hertha Berlin and 1-1 draws against Cologne and Hoffenheim (all top seven sides of similar ability to Dortmund). Notably, Werder Bremen haven’t been scoring too many goals either, being forced to rely on ex-Arsenal winger Serge Gnabry as veteran striker Claudio Pizarro has failed to scored in any of his appearances so far this season.
Regarding a correct score bet, as both sides are trending towards lower scoring draws and Dortmund are without star Aubameyang, we feel that odds of 15/2 on a 1-1 draw offer a decent amount of value here.
HEAD TO HEAD
Borussia Dortmund won 3-2 at home when the two sides last met in April 2016. Borussia Dortmund have won nine of the last ten meetings against Werder Bremen.
WERDER BREMEN VS BORUSSIA DORTMUND STATS
Under 2.5 goals has landed in all three of Werder Bremen’s last three matches. Dortmund have drawn 1-1 in two of their last three matches and won just one of their last six away matches (W1 D3 L2).
WERDER BREMEN TEAM NEWS
Werder Bremen are doubtful attacking midfielder Zlatko Junuzovic, defensive midfielders Philipp Bargfrede and Florian Grillitsch, and centre back Luca Caldirola.
BORUSSIA DORTMUND TEAM NEWS
Dortmund have a few notable absentees: Bundesliga top scorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is absent from the squad as he represents Gabon in the AFCON. Ousmane Dembele (winger), Sokratis (centre back), Sven Bender (center back) and first choice goalkeeper Roman Burki also remain doubtful. Marco Reus is expected to make his return after suspension.
WERDER BREMEN VS BORUSSIA DORTMUND PREDICTIONS both team to score
